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TC-GEN: Data-driven Tropical Cyclone Downscaling using Machine Learning-Based High-resolution Weather Model
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  • Renzhi Jing,
  • Jianxiong Gao,
  • Yunuo Cai,
  • Dazhi Xi,
  • Yinda Zhang,
  • Yanwei Fu,
  • Kerry A. Emanuel,
  • Noah S. Diffenbaugh,
  • Eran Bendavid
Renzhi Jing
Stanford University

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

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Jianxiong Gao
Fudan University
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Yunuo Cai
Fudan University
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Dazhi Xi
Princeton University
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Yinda Zhang
Google LLC
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Yanwei Fu
Fudan University
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Kerry A. Emanuel
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
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Noah S. Diffenbaugh
Stanford University
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Eran Bendavid
Stanford University
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Abstract

Synthetic downscaling of tropical cyclones (TCs) is critically important to estimate the long-term hazard of rare high-impact storm events. Existing downscaling approaches rely on statistical or statistical-deterministic models that are capable of generating large samples of synthetic storms with characteristics similar to observed storms. However, these models do not capture the complex two-way interactions between a storm and its environment. In addition, these approaches either necessitate a separate TC size model to simulate storm size or involve post-processing to introduce asymmetries in the simulated surface wind. In this study, we present an innovative data-driven approach for TC synthetic downscaling. Using a machine learning-based high-resolution global weather model (ML-GWM), our approach is able to simulate the full life cycle of a storm with asymmetric surface wind that accounts for the two-way interactions between the storm and its environment. This approach consists of multiple components: a data-driven model for generating synthetic TC seeds, a blending method that seamlessly integrate storm seeds into the surrounding while maintain the seed structure, and a recurrent neural network-based model for correcting the biases in maximum wind speed. Compared to observations and synthetic storms simulated using existing statistical-deterministic and statistical downscaling approaches, our method shows the ability to effectively capture many aspects of TC statistics, including track density, landfall frequency, landfall intensity, and outermost wind extent. Taking advantage of the computational efficiency of ML-GWM, our approach shows substantial potential for TC regional hazard and risk assessment.
09 Jan 2024Submitted to ESS Open Archive
16 Jan 2024Published in ESS Open Archive