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Influences of Space Weather Forecasting Uncertainty on Satellite Conjunction Assessment
  • +4
  • William Parker,
  • Mervyn P. Freeman,
  • Gareth Chisham,
  • Andrew John Kavanagh,
  • Peng Mun Siew,
  • Victor Rodriguez-Fernandez,
  • Richard Linares
William Parker
Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

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Mervyn P. Freeman
British Antarctic Survey
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Gareth Chisham
British Antarctic Survey
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Andrew John Kavanagh
British Antarctic Survey
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Peng Mun Siew
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
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Victor Rodriguez-Fernandez
Universidad Politecnica de Madrid
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Richard Linares
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
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Abstract

A significant increase in the number of anthropogenic objects in Earth orbit has necessitated the development of satellite conjunction assessment and collision avoidance capabilities for new spacecraft. Often, the greatest source of uncertainty in predicting a satellite's trajectory in low Earth orbit originates from atmospheric neutral mass density variability caused by enhanced geomagnetic activity and solar EUV absorption. This work investigates the impacts of solar and geomagnetic index forecasting uncertainty on satellite drag and satellite maneuver decision-making. During an averaged point in the solar cycle, accurate index forecasts with reduced uncertainty are shown to provide significantly improved advance notice for dangerous conjunction events above 500 km. Below 500 km, forecast improvements are less impactful. This boundary of utility from forecast improvements shifts upward and downward during solar maximum and solar minimum, respectively. Improved index forecasts are shown to have little impact on making maneuver decisions 12-24 hours from a potential conjunction event, but are demonstrated to be very useful when trying to make maneuver decisions with more lead time. These improved forecasts of the space weather indices help in making actionable, durable conjunction predictions sooner than is currently possible.
05 Dec 2023Submitted to ESS Open Archive
10 Dec 2023Published in ESS Open Archive