Probabilistic diffusion model for stochastic parameterization -- a case
example of numerical precipitation estimation
Abstract
Estimating the unresolved geophysical processes from resolved
geophysical fluid dynamics is the key for improving numerical
weather-climate predictions. While data-driven parameterization for
unresolved geophysical processes shows potential, most practices fail to
capture the diversity of unresolved geophysical processes that agree
with resolved geophysical fluid state. This pitfall undermines the
likelihood or severity of simulated weather extremes, and erodes the
fidelity of climate projections. We propose the criteria of READS
(Realism, Efficiency, Adaptability, Diversity, Sharpness) for generative
models to yield reasonable stochastic parameterization. We introduce
probabilistic diffusion model, a non-equilibrium thermodynamics inspired
deep generative modeling approach, to better meet these criteria. Using
a case example of numerical precipitation estimation, we demonstrate the
advantage of the proposed methodology in quickly delivering diverse and
faithful estimates for the target unresolved process, as compared to
other popular data-driven deterministic and stochastic methods (UNet,
variational autoencoder, generative adversarial net), as well as
dynamical downscaling method (WRF). We conclude that generative models,
in particular, probabilistic diffusion model, can significantly enhance
the representation of unresolved geophysical processes in numerical
weather-climate predictions.