loading page

Probabilistic diffusion model for stochastic parameterization -- a case example of numerical precipitation estimation
  • +8
  • Baoxiang Pan,
  • Le-Yi Wang,
  • Feng Zhang,
  • Qingyun Duan,
  • Xin Li,
  • Xiaoduo Pan,
  • Xi Chen,
  • Fenghua Ling,
  • Shuguang Wang,
  • Ming Pan,
  • Ziniu Xiao
Baoxiang Pan
Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

Author Profile
Le-Yi Wang
Nanjing University
Author Profile
Feng Zhang
Fudan University
Author Profile
Qingyun Duan
Hohai University
Author Profile
Xin Li
Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences
Author Profile
Xiaoduo Pan
Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research Chinese Academy of Sciences
Author Profile
Xi Chen
Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences
Author Profile
Fenghua Ling
Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology
Author Profile
Shuguang Wang
School of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University
Author Profile
Ming Pan
University of California San Diego
Author Profile
Ziniu Xiao
Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences
Author Profile

Abstract

Estimating the unresolved geophysical processes from resolved geophysical fluid dynamics is the key for improving numerical weather-climate predictions. While data-driven parameterization for unresolved geophysical processes shows potential, most practices fail to capture the diversity of unresolved geophysical processes that agree with resolved geophysical fluid state. This pitfall undermines the likelihood or severity of simulated weather extremes, and erodes the fidelity of climate projections. We propose the criteria of READS (Realism, Efficiency, Adaptability, Diversity, Sharpness) for generative models to yield reasonable stochastic parameterization. We introduce probabilistic diffusion model, a non-equilibrium thermodynamics inspired deep generative modeling approach, to better meet these criteria. Using a case example of numerical precipitation estimation, we demonstrate the advantage of the proposed methodology in quickly delivering diverse and faithful estimates for the target unresolved process, as compared to other popular data-driven deterministic and stochastic methods (UNet, variational autoencoder, generative adversarial net), as well as dynamical downscaling method (WRF). We conclude that generative models, in particular, probabilistic diffusion model, can significantly enhance the representation of unresolved geophysical processes in numerical weather-climate predictions.
28 Nov 2023Submitted to ESS Open Archive
03 Dec 2023Published in ESS Open Archive