Evaluating the Sustainability of Groundwater Resources: A Framework
Incorporating the Ecological Groundwater Depth and Reliability,
Resilience, and Vulnerability Indexes
Abstract
Groundwater resource sustainability faces significant challenges due to
groundwater overdraft and waterlogging. Here we propose a novel
framework for evaluating the sustainability of groundwater resources.
The framework incorporates a dynamic calculation of the ecological
groundwater depth (EGWD) at the grid scale, considering multiple
protective targets. To quantitatively evaluate the groundwater
sustainability, we utilize reliability, resilience, and vulnerability,
to measure the frequency, duration, and extent of unsatisfactory
conditions. We apply this framework to the lower part of Tao’er River
Basin in China. During the non-growth period and growth period, the
upper thresholds of the EGWD range from 1.16 to 2.05 meters and 1.16 to
4.05 meters, respectively. The lower thresholds range from 6.28 to 33.54
meters and 4.87 to 30.72 meters, respectively. Future climate change
improves reliability performances in regions with deep groundwater
depths. Although the precipitation infiltration increases in future
scenarios, prolonged duration and enhanced intensity of extreme climate
events lead to decreased resilience and vulnerability performances under
climate change. The proportion of areas with resilience values less than
1/12 expands to 2~3 times that of the historical
scenario. Furthermore, we observe that more areas face the dual
challenges of groundwater depletion and waterlogging under future
climate change, particularly in high-emission scenarios. This study
enhances understanding of groundwater resource sustainability by
considering the spatial-temporal distribution of the EGWD, climate
change impacts, and the identification of key regions for management.
The insights can inform the development of effective strategies for
sustainable groundwater resource management.