Optimization of Convolutional Neural Network models for spatially
coherent multi-site fire danger predictions
Abstract
The accurate prediction of the Fire Weather Index (FWI), a multivariate
climate index for wildfire risk characterization, is crucial for both
wildfire management and climate-resilient planning. Moreover, consistent
multisite fire danger predictions are key for targeted allocation of
resources and early intervention in high-risk areas, as well as for
“megafire” risk detection. In this regard, Convolutional Neural
Networks (CNNs) are known to capture complex spatial patterns in climate
data. This study compares different CNN architectures and traditional
Statistical Downscaling (SD) methods (regression and analogs) for
predicting daily FWI across diverse locations in Spain, considering
marginal, distributional and spatial coherence measures for validation.
Overall, the CNN-Multi-Site-Multi-Gaussian configuration, which
explicitly accounts for the inter-site variability in the output layer
structure, showed a superior performance. These insights provide a
methodological guidance for the successful application of CNNs in the
context wildfire risk assessment, enhancing wildfire response strategies
and climate adaptation planning.