Envisioning U.S. Climate Predictions and Projections to Meet New
Challenges
Abstract
In the face of a changing climate, the understanding, predictions and
projections of natural and human systems are increasingly crucial to
prepare and cope with extremes and cascading hazards, determine
unexpected feedbacks and potential tipping points, inform long-term
adaptation strategies, and guide mitigation approaches. Increasingly
complex socio-economic systems require enhanced predictive information
to support advanced practices. Such new predictive challenges drive the
need to fully capitalize on ambitious scientific and technological
opportunities. These include the unrealized potential for very
high-resolution modeling of global-to-local Earth system processes
across timescales, a reduction of model biases, enhanced integration of
human systems and the Earth Systems, better quantification of
predictability and uncertainties; expedited science-to-service pathways
and co-production of actionable information with stakeholders. Enabling
technological opportunities include exascale computing, advanced data
storage, novel observations and powerful data analytics, including
artificial intelligence and machine learning. Looking to generate
community discussions on how to accelerate progress on U.S. climate
predictions and projections, representatives of Federally-funded U.S.
modeling groups outline here perspectives on a six-pillar national
approach grounded in climate science that builds on the strengths of the
U.S. modeling community and agency goals. This calls for an
unprecedented level of coordination to capitalize on transformative
opportunities, augmenting and complementing current modeling center
capabilities and plans to support agency missions. Tangible outcomes
include projections with horizontal spatial resolutions finer than 10
km, representing extremes and associated risks in greater detail,
reduced model errors, better predictability estimates, and more
customized projections to support the next generation of climate
services.