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Potential Impacts of Climate Change on the Sudan-Sahel Region in West Africa - Insights from Burkina Faso
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  • Windmanagda Sawadogo,
  • Tiga Neya,
  • Drissa Semdé,
  • Joël Awouhidia Korahiré,
  • Alain Combasséré Alain Combasséré,
  • Traoré Do Etienne,
  • Pamoussa Ouedraogo,
  • Ulrich Jacques Diasso,
  • Babatunde Joseph Abiodun,
  • Jan Bliefernicht,
  • Harald Günter Kunstmann
Windmanagda Sawadogo
University of Augsburg

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

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Tiga Neya
Secrétariat Permanent du Conseil National pour le Développement Durable Burkina Faso
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Drissa Semdé
Secrétariat Permanent du Conseil National pour le Développement Durable Burkina Faso
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Joël Awouhidia Korahiré
WHESYM Canada, B-82 Rue Saint-Henri, Gatineau, QC J8X2Y2
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Alain Combasséré Alain Combasséré
Secrétariat Permanent du Conseil National pour le Développement Durable Burkina Faso
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Traoré Do Etienne
Secrétariat Permanent du Conseil National pour le Développement Durable Burkina Faso
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Pamoussa Ouedraogo
Secrétariat Permanent du Conseil National pour le Développement Durable Burkina Faso
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Ulrich Jacques Diasso
Agence Nationale de la Météorologie du Burkina Faso (ANAM)
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Babatunde Joseph Abiodun
University of Cape Town
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Jan Bliefernicht
Institute of Geography, University of Augsburg, 86159 Augsburg, Germany
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Harald Günter Kunstmann
Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT)
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Abstract

The Sudan-Sahel region has long been vulnerable to environmental change. However, the intensification of global warming has led to unprecedented challenges that require a detailed understanding of climate change for this region. This study analyzes the impacts of climate change for Burkina Faso using eleven climate indices that are highly relevant to Sudan-Sahelian societies. The full ensemble of statistically downscaled NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 models (25 km) is used to determine the projected changes for the near (2031-2060) and far future (2071-2100) compared to the reference period (1985-2014) for different SSPs. Validation of the climate models against state-of-the-art reference data (CHIRPS and ERA5) shows reasonable performance for the main climate variables with some biases. Under the SSP5-8.5, Burkina Faso is projected to experience a substantial temperature increase of more than 4.3°C by the end of the century. Rainfall amount is projected to increase by 30% under the SSP5-8.5, with the rainy season starting earlier and lasting longer. This could increase water availability for rainfed agriculture but is offset by a 20% increase in evapotranspiration. The country could be at increased risk of flooding and heavy rainfall in all SSPs and future periods. Due to the pronounced temperature increase, heat stress, discomfort, and cooling degree days are expected to strongly increase under the SSP8.5 scenarios, especially in the western and northern parts. Under the SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5, the projected changes are much lower for the country. Thus, timely implementation of climate change mitigation measures can significantly reduce climate change impacts for this vulnerable region.
13 Sep 2023Submitted to ESS Open Archive
13 Sep 2023Published in ESS Open Archive