Abstract
Earthquake forecasting is a challenging goal for seismologists and
geophysicists due to the complex nature of the earthquake phenomenon.
Delivering reliable forecasts is crucial for public safety. This study
derives the probability of extreme events in any seismic cluster
generated by the Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model. This
probability is obtained as a function of time, space and magnitude. The
results contribute to understanding the distinguishing features between
mainshocks and foreshocks and provide insights into earthquake
prediction and the probability assessment of extreme events within
seismic clusters.