Intercomparison of initialization methods for Seasonal-to-Decadal
Climate Predictions with the NorCPM
Abstract
Initialization is essential for accurate seasonal-to-decadal (S2D)
climate predictions. The initialization schemes used differ on the
component initialized, the Data Assimilation (DA) method, or the
technique.
We compare five popular schemes within NorCPM following the same
experimental protocol: reanalysis from 1980–2010 and seasonal and
decadal predictions initialized from the reanalysis. We compare
atmospheric initialization—Newtonian relaxation (nudging)—against
ocean initialization—Ensemble Kalman Filter—(ODA). On the
atmosphere, we explore the benefit of full-field (NudF-UVT) or anomaly
(NudA-UVT) nudging of horizontal winds and temperature (U, V, and T)
observations. The scheme NudA-UV nudges horizontal winds to disentangle
the role of wind-driven variability. The scheme ODA+NudA-UV provides a
first attempt at joint initialization of the ocean and atmospheric
components. During the reanalysis, atmospheric nudging leads to
atmosphere and land components best synchronized with observations.
Conversely, ODA best synchronizes the ocean component with observations.
The atmospheric nudging schemes are better at reproducing specific
events, such as the rapid North Atlantic subpolar gyre (SPG) shift. An
abrupt climatological change using the NudA-UV scheme demonstrates that
energy conservation is crucial when only assimilating winds. ODA
outperforms atmospheric-initialized versions for S2D global predictions,
while atmospheric nudging is preferable for accurately initializing
phenomena in specific regions, with the technique’s benefit depending on
the prediction’s temporal scale. For instance, atmospheric full-field
initialization benefits the tropical Atlantic Niño at one-month lead
time, and atmospheric anomaly initialization benefits longer lead times,
reducing hindcast drift. Combining atmosphere and ocean initialization
yields sub-optimal results, as sustaining the ensemble’s
reliability—required for ODA’s performance—is challenging with
atmospheric nudging.