Recent multi-decadal Southern Ocean surface cooling unlikely caused by
Southern Annular Mode trends
Abstract
Over recent decades, the Southern Ocean (SO) has experienced
multi-decadal surface cooling despite global warming. Earlier studies
have proposed that recent SO cooling has been caused by the
strengthening of surface westerlies associated with a positive trend of
the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) forced by ozone depletion. Here we
revisit this hypothesis by examining the relationships between the SAM,
zonal winds and SO sea-surface temperature (SST). Using a low-frequency
component analysis, we show that while positive SAM anomalies can induce
SST cooling as previously found, this seasonal-to-interannual modulation
makes only a small contribution to the observed long-term SO cooling.
Global climate models well capture the observed interannual SAM-SST
relationship, and yet generally fail to simulate the observed
multi-decadal SO cooling. The forced SAM trend in recent decades is thus
unlikely the main cause of the observed SO cooling, pointing to a
limited role of the Antarctic ozone hole.