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Recent Challenges in the APCC Multi-Model Ensemble Seasonal Prediction: Hindcast Period Issue
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  • Young-Mi Min,
  • Chang-Mook Lim,
  • Vladimir Kryjov,
  • Daeun Jeong
Young-Mi Min
APEC Climate Center (APCC)

Corresponding Author:ymmin@apcc21.org

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Chang-Mook Lim
APEC Climate Center
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Vladimir Kryjov
Pusan National University
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Daeun Jeong
APEC Climate Center (APCC)
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Seasonal forecasts are commonly issued in the form of anomalies as departures from average in a specified multiyear reference period (climatology). The model climatology is estimated as average of retrospective forecasts over the hindcast period. However, different operational centers providing seasonal ensemble predictions use different hindcast periods based on their own model climatology. In addition, the hindcast period of recently developed/upgraded newer models tends to shift to the recent years. In this paper, we discuss recent challenges faced by the APCC multi-model ensemble (MME) operations, especially changes in the hindcast period for individual models. Based on the results of various sensitivity experiments for the MME prediction, we proposed to change the hindcast period that is the most appropriate solution for the APCC operations. It makes the newly developed models join the MME and increase the total number of participating models, which facilitates the skill improvement of the MME prediction.
29 Jul 2023Submitted to ESS Open Archive
03 Aug 2023Published in ESS Open Archive