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Graeme Alastair MacGilchrist
Public Documents
2
Water Mass Transformation Budgets in Finite-Volume Generalized Vertical Coordinate Oc...
Henri Francois Drake
and 8 more
April 11, 2024
A document by Henri Drake. Click on the document to view its contents.
Potential Predictability of the Spring Bloom in the Southern Ocean Sea Ice Zone
Benjamin Buchovecky
and 6 more
July 08, 2023
Every austral spring when Antarctic sea ice melts, favorable growing conditions lead to an intense phytoplankton bloom, which supports much of the local marine ecosystem. Recent studies have found that Antarctic sea ice is predictable several years in advance, suggesting that the spring bloom might exhibit similar predictability. Using a suite of perfect model predictability experiments, we find that November net primary production (NPP) is potentially predictable seven to ten years in advance in many Southern Ocean regions. Sea ice extent predictability peaks in late winter, followed by absorbed shortwave radiation and NPP with a two to three months lag. This seasonal progression of predictability supports our hypothesis that sea ice and light limitation control the inherent predictability of the spring bloom. Our results suggest skillful interannual predictions of NPP may be achievable, with implications for managing fisheries and the marine ecosystem, and guiding conservation policy in the Southern Ocean.