Climate change is one of the most serious challenges facing mankind. Sphagnum moss plays an important role in the carbon sink of peatland. Understanding the potential distribution of Sphagnum moss under climate change scenarios is critical for the conservation and rational exploitation of it. In this study, we divided the Hengduan Mountains (HDM) into east (EHDM) and west (WHDM) parts to see the difference between the whole and the parts, and understand the effects of integrity and connectivity of the landscape on species distribution. Since no enough occurrence data in EHDM, we applied the occurrence data in WHDM. Then, MaxEnt model was employed to predict the potential distribution of Sphagnum moss and computed the migratory paths of the distribution center points. We found precipitation in the coldest quarter, daily range of average temperature, isothermality and slope were the main factors affecting the suitable habitat for Sphagnum moss in HDM and WHDM. In HDM, the current potential suitable habitat is 2.6×104 km2, and will increase over 8 times and tend to shift northeastward and higher elevations in the future. In WHDM, the suitable area is 1.06×104 km2, but will decline exceeds 70% under most future climate scenarios, and tend to shift southward and lower elevations. Landscape integrity and connectivity have a great impact on the distribution of HDM Sphagnum moss species. Overall, our findings provide a reference for the conservation and management of Sphagnum moss.

Alpine glacier meltwater from the Qilian Mountains (QMs), northeast Tibetan Plateau, is main source of water for the surrounding arid zones. Accurately reconstructing long-term mountain glacier mass balance (MB) and prejecting glacier changes under climate warming are pivotal in cryospheric scientific research. In this study, Laohugou Glacier No. 12 (LHG12), in the western QMs, was selected as a study area. Based on the evaluated and corrected CMIP6 model data, the degree-day and glacier retreat model were used to predict the glacier changes under three scenarios for 2020–2100. The results showed that 1) from 2020–2100, the annual mass loss of LHG12 simulated using CanESM5 and EC-Earth3 increased compared to the measured data in the historical period (2010–2014) (i.e., annual MB of -0.26 m w.e) by a factor of 1.04 and 1.73 under SSP1-2.6, 4.62 and 4.88 under SSP3-7.0, and 6.23 and 7.15 times under SSP5-8.5. 2) By 2100, the ice volume of LHG12 simulated using CanESM5 and EC-Earth3 reduced to 1.00×109 (58.2%) and 1.27×109 (74.0%) m3 under SSP1-2.6, 0.18×109 (10.2%) and 0.15×109 (8.9%) m3 under SSP3-7.0, and 0.03×109 (1.6 %) and 0.01×109 (0.4%) m3 under SSP5-8.5, respectively. 3) Under SSP5-8.5, the LHG12 area simulated using CanESM5 and EC-Earth3 was only 1.87 and 0.75 km2 by 2100. This study lays a foundation for predicting the peak and inflection points of runoff change in the QMs.