Zhengyang Zhang

and 9 more

A large portion of Central-Western Asia is made up of contiguous closed basins, collectively termed as the Asian Endorheic Basins (AEB). As these retention basins are only being replenished by the intermittent precipitation, increasing droughts in the region and a growing demand for water have been presumed to jointly contributed to the land degradation. To understand the impact of climate change and human activities on dryland vegetation over the AEB, we conducted trend and partial correlation analysis of vegetation and hydroclimatic change from 2001 to 2021 using multi-satellite observations, including vegetation greenness, total water storage anomalies (TWSA) and meteorological data. Here we show that much of the AEB (65.53%) exhibited a greening trend over the past two decades. Partial correlation analyses indicated that climatic factors had varying effects on vegetation productivity as a function of vegetation types and aridity. In arid AEB, precipitation dominated the vegetation productivity trend. Such a rainfall dominance gave way to TWSA dominance in the hyper-arid AEB. We further showed that the decoupling of rainfall and hyper-arid vegetation greening was largely due to a significant expansion (17.3%) in irrigated cropland across the hyper-arid AEB. Given the extremely harsh environment in the hyper-arid AEB, our results therefore raised the concerns on the ecological and societal sustainability in this region, where a mild increase in precipitation might not be able to catch up the rising evaporative demand and water consumption resulted from global warming and irrigation intensification.