Application of Downscaled Extreme Precipitation to Flood Control Agency
Operations: A Framework for Stakeholder-driven Climate Science
Abstract
Extreme precipitation is expected to intensify as the climate warms, but
the magnitude of the increase will vary regionally. In many cases,
global climate models (GCMs) are not well-suited to project the changes
in extreme precipitation due to their coarse resolution, particularly
over complex terrain. Here, we analyze an unprecedented suite of eight
bias-corrected dynamically downscaled GCMs over the western U.S., which
allow us to assess extreme precipitation changes at high resolution. We
pool data across the downscaled ensemble to adequately sample extreme
events and characterize 99.99th percentile precipitation in Los Angeles
County, home to 10M people. This high-resolution data allows us to
advise a county government agency on expected changes in local extreme
precipitation so that they may consider the suitability of their urban
design standards in the coming decades. We find that the 99.99th
percentile precipitation event is expected to increase by about 6.5%
per degree Celsius global warming on average over Los Angeles County.
However, Los Angeles County contains numerous micro-climates associated
with, e.g., high mountains, marine ecosystems, and urban centers, whose
future changes the downscaled projections are uniquely suited to
predict. The absolute increases in extreme precipitation are shown to be
magnified in the mountains and minimized in the desert regions. The
agency will use this data to become more resilient to climate change.
This project underscores the importance of stakeholder engagement with
scientists for translating climate data into actionable guidance.