Data Assimilation Informed model Structure Improvement (DAISI) for
robust prediction under climate change: Application to 201 catchments in
southeastern Australia
Abstract
This paper presents a method to analyze and improve the set of equations
constituting a rainfall-runoff model structure based on a combination of
a data assimilation algorithm and polynomial updates to the state
equations. The method, which we have called “Data Assimilation Informed
model Structure Improvement” (DAISI) is generic, modular, and
demonstrated with an application to the GR2M model and 201 catchments in
South-East Australia. Our results show that the updated model generated
with DAISI generally performed better for all metrics considered
included KGE, NSE on log transform flow and flow duration curve bias. In
addition, the modelled elasticity of runoff to rainfall is higher in the
updated model, which suggests that the structural changes could have a
significant impact on climate change simulations. Finally, the DAISI
diagnostic identified a reduced number of update configurations in the
GR2M structure with distinct regional patterns in three sub-regions of
the modelling domain (Western Victoria, central region, and Northern New
South Wales). These configurations correspond to specific polynomials of
the state variables that could be used to improve equations in a revised
model. Several potential improvements of DAISI are proposed including
the use of additional observed variables such as actual
evapotranspiration to better constrain the model internal fluxes.