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The new Max Planck Institute Grand Ensemble with CMIP6 forcing and high-frequency model output
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  • Dirk Olonscheck,
  • Laura Suarez-Gutierrez,
  • Sebastian Milinski,
  • Goratz Beobide‐Arsuaga,
  • Johanna Baehr,
  • Friederike Fröb,
  • Lara Hellmich,
  • Tatiana Ilyina,
  • Christopher Kadow,
  • Daniel Krieger,
  • Hongmei Li,
  • Jochem Marotzke,
  • Étienne Plésiat,
  • Martin Schupfner,
  • Fabian Wachsmann,
  • Karl-Hermann Wieners,
  • Sebastian Brune
Dirk Olonscheck
MPI

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

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Laura Suarez-Gutierrez
Max Planck Institute for Meteorology
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Sebastian Milinski
ECMWF
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Goratz Beobide‐Arsuaga
Universität Hamburg, Center for Earth System Research and Sustainability
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Johanna Baehr
Universität Hamburg, Center for Earth System Research and Sustainability
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Friederike Fröb
Max Planck Institute for Meteorology
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Lara Hellmich
Max Planck Institute for Meteorology
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Tatiana Ilyina
Max Planck Institute of Meteorology
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Christopher Kadow
DKRZ
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Daniel Krieger
Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht
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Hongmei Li
Max Planck Institute for Meteorology
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Jochem Marotzke
Max Planck Institute for Meteorology
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Étienne Plésiat
DKRZ
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Martin Schupfner
DKRZ
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Fabian Wachsmann
DKRZ
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Karl-Hermann Wieners
Max Planck Institute for Meteorology
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Sebastian Brune
Universität Hamburg
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Abstract

Single-model initial-condition large ensembles are powerful tools to quantify the forced response, internal climate variability, and their evolution under global warming. Here, we present the CMIP6 version of the Max Planck Institute Grand Ensemble (MPI-GE CMIP6) with 30 realisations for the historical period and five emission scenarios. The power of MPI-GE CMIP6 goes beyond its predecessor ensemble MPI-GE by providing high-frequency output, the full range of emission scenarios including the highly policy-relevant low emission scenarios SSP1-1.9 and SSP1-2.6, and the opportunity to compare the ensemble to complementary high-resolution simulations. First, we describe MPI-GE CMIP6, evaluate it with observations and reanalyses and compare it to MPI-GE. Then, we demonstrate with six novel application examples how to use the power of the ensemble to better quantify and understand present and future climate extremes, to inform about uncertainty in approaching Paris Agreement global warming limits, and to combine large ensembles and artificial intelligence. For instance, MPI-GE CMIP6 allows us to show that the recently observed Siberian and Pacific North American heatwaves would only avoid reaching 1-2 year return periods in 2071-2100 with low emission scenarios, that recently observed European precipitation extremes are captured only by complementary high-resolution simulations, and that 3-hourly output projects a decreasing activity of storms in mid-latitude oceans. Further, the ensemble is ideal for estimates of probabilities of crossing global warming limits and the irreducible uncertainty introduced by internal variability, and is sufficiently large to be used for infilling surface temperature observations with artificial intelligence.
02 May 2023Submitted to ESS Open Archive
04 May 2023Published in ESS Open Archive