The Impact of Climate Forcing Biases and the Nitrogen Cycle on Land
Carbon Balance Projections
Abstract
Earth System Models (ESMs) project that the terrestrial carbon sink will
continue to grow as atmospheric CO$_2$ increases, but this projection
is uncertain due to biases in the simulated climate and how ESMs
represent ecosystem processes. In particular, the strength of the
CO$_2$ fertilization effect, which is modulated by nutrient cycles,
varies substantially across models. This study evaluates land carbon
balance uncertainties for the Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM) by
conducting simulations where the latest version of CanESM’s land surface
component is driven offline with raw and bias-adjusted CanESM5 climate
forcing data. To quantify the impact of nutrient limitation, we complete
simulations where the nitrogen cycle is enabled or disabled. Results
show that bias adjustment improves model performance across most
ecosystem variables, primarily due to reduced biases in precipitation.
Turning the nitrogen cycle on increases the global land carbon sink
during the historical period (1995-2014) due to enhanced nitrogen
deposition, placing it within the Global Carbon Budget uncertainty
range. During the future period (2080-2099), the simulated land carbon
sink increases in response to bias adjustment and decreases in response
to the dynamic carbon-nitrogen interaction, leading to a net decrease
when both factors are acting together. The dominating impact of the
nitrogen cycle demonstrates the importance of representing nutrient
limitation in ESMs. Such efforts may produce more robust carbon balance
projections in support of global climate change mitigation policies such
as the 2015 Paris Agreement.