Atmospheric nitrogen (N) deposition and climate change are transforming the way N moves through dryland watersheds. For example, N deposition is increasing N export to streams, which may be exacerbated by changes in the magnitude, timing, and intensity of precipitation (i.e., the precipitation regime). While deposition controls the amount of N entering a watershed, the precipitation regime influences rates of internal cycling; when and where soil N, plant roots, and microbes are hydrologically connected; how quickly plants and microbes assimilate N; and rates of denitrification, runoff, and leaching. We used the ecohydrological model RHESSys to investigate (1) how N dynamics differ between N-limited and N-saturated conditions in a dryland watershed, and (2) how total precipitation and its intra-annual intermittency (i.e., the time between storms in a year), interannual intermittency (i.e., the duration of dry months across multiple years), and interannual variability (i.e., variance in the amount of precipitation among years) modify N dynamics. Streamflow N export was more sensitive to increasing intermittency and variability in N-limited vs. N-saturated model scenarios, particularly when total precipitation was lower—the opposite was true for denitrification. N export and denitrification increased or decreased the most with increasing interannual intermittency compared to other changes in precipitation timing. This suggests that under future climate change, prolonged droughts that are followed by more intense storms may pose a major threat to water quality in dryland watersheds.

Climate change and nitrogen (N) pollution are altering biogeochemical and ecohydrological processes in dryland watersheds, increasing N export, and threatening water quality. While simulation models are useful for projecting how N export will change in the future, most models ignore biogeochemical “hotspots” that develop in drylands as moist microsites become hydrologically disconnected from plant roots when soils dry out. These hotspots enable N to accumulate over dry periods and rapidly flush to streams when soils wet up. To better project future N export, we developed a framework for representing hotspots using the ecohydrological model RHESSys. We then conducted a series of virtual experiments to understand how uncertainties in model structure and parameters influence N export. Modeled export was sensitive to the abundance of hotspots in a watershed, increasing linearly and then reaching an asymptote with increasing hotspot abundance. Peak streamflow N was also sensitive to a soil moisture threshold at which subsurface flow from hotspots reestablished, allowing N to be transferred to streams; it increased and then decreased with an increasing threshold value. Finally, N export was generally higher when water diffused out of hotspots slowly. In a case study, we found that when hotspots were modeled explicitly, peak streamflow nitrate export increased by 29%, enabling us to better capture the timing and magnitude of N losses observed in the field. This modeling framework can improve projections of N export in watersheds where hotspots play an increasingly important role in water quality.

Climate change and nitrogen (N) pollution are altering biogeochemical and ecohydrological processes in dryland watersheds, increasing N export, and threatening water quality. While simulation models are useful for projecting how N export will change in the future, most models ignore biogeochemical “hotspots” that develop in drylands as moist microsites become hydrologically disconnected from plant roots when soils dry out. These hotspots enable N to accumulate over dry periods and rapidly flush to streams when soils wet up. To better project future N export, we developed a framework for representing hotspots using the ecohydrological model RHESSys. We then conducted a series of virtual experiments to understand how uncertainties in model structure and parameters influence N export. Modeled export was sensitive to the abundance of hotspots in a watershed, increasing linearly and then reaching an asymptote with increasing hotspot abundance. Peak streamflow N was also sensitive to a soil moisture threshold at which subsurface flow from hotspots reestablished, allowing N to be transferred to streams; it increased and then decreased with an increasing threshold value. Finally, N export was generally higher when water diffused out of hotspots slowly. In a case study, we found that when hotspots were modeled explicitly, peak streamflow nitrate export increased by 29%, enabling us to better capture the timing and magnitude of N losses observed in the field. This modeling framework can improve projections of N export in watersheds where hotspots play an increasingly important role in water quality.