Abstract
The search for pre-eruptive observables that can be used for short-term
volcanic early warning remains a scientific challenge. Pre-eruptive
patterns in seismic data are usually identified by analyzing seismic
catalogues (e.g., the number and types of recorded seismic events), the
evolution of seismic energy, or changes in the tensional state of the
volcanic medium as a consequence of changes in the volume of the
volcano. However, although successful volcanic predictions have been
achieved, there is still no generally valid model suitable for a large
range of eruptive scenarios. In this study, we evaluate the potential
successful use of Shannon entropy as short-term volcanic eruption
forecasting extracted from seismic signals at five well studied
volcanoes (Etna, Mount St. Helens, Kilauea, Augustine, and Bezymianny).
We identified temporal patterns that can be used as short-term eruptive
precursors. We quantified how the Shannon entropy drops several hours
before the eruptions analyzed, between 4 days and 12 h before. When
Shannon entropy is combined with the temporal evolution of other
features (i.e., energy, kurtosis, and the frequency index) and
complementary information on types of seismic sources, the meaning of
physical changes in the volcanic system could be obtained. Our results
show that pre-eruptive variation in Shannon entropy offers is a
confident short-term volcanic eruption forecasting tool.