Tailored forecasts can predict extreme climate informing proactive
interventions in East Africa
Abstract
This commentary discusses new advances in the predictability of east
African rains and highlights the potential for improved early warning
systems (EWS), humanitarian relief efforts, and agricultural
decision-making. Following an unprecedented sequence of five droughts,
in 2022 23 million east Africans faced starvation, requiring
>$2 billion in aid. Here, we update climate attribution
studies showing that these droughts resulted from an interaction of
climate change and La Niña. Then we describe, for the first time, how
attribution-based insights can be combined with the latest dynamic
models to predict droughts at eight-month lead-times. We then discuss
behavioral and social barriers to forecast use, and review literature
examining how EWS might (or might not) enhance agro-pastoral advisories
and humanitarian interventions. Finally, in reference to the new World
Meteorological Organization (WMO) “Early Warning for All” plan, we
conclude with a set of recommendations supporting actionable and
authoritative climate services. Trust, urgency, and accuracy can help
overcome barriers created by limited funding, uncertain tradeoffs, and
inertia. Understanding how climate change is producing predictable
climate extremes now, investing in African-led EWS, and building better
links between EWS and agricultural development efforts can support
long-term adaptation, reducing chronic needs for billions of dollars in
reactive assistance. The main messages of this commentary will be
widely. Climate change is interacting with La Niña to produce extreme,
but extremely predictable, Pacific sea surface temperature gradients.
These gradients will affect the climate in many countries creating
opportunities for prediction. Effective use of such predictions,
however, will demand cross-silo collaboration.