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Tailored forecasts can predict extreme climate informing proactive interventions in East Africa
  • +19
  • Chris Funk,
  • Laura Harrison,
  • Zewdu Segele,
  • Todd Stuart Rosenstock,
  • peter steward,
  • leigh anderson,
  • Erin Coughlan-Perez,
  • daniel maxwell,
  • Hussen Seid Endris,
  • Eunice Koech,
  • guleid artan,
  • Fetene Teshome,
  • Stella Aura,
  • Gideon Galu,
  • Diriba Korecha,
  • weston anderson,
  • Andrew Hoell,
  • kerstin damerau,
  • Emily L Williams,
  • Aniruddha gosh,
  • Julian Ramirez Villegas,
  • david Peter hughes
Chris Funk
University of California, Santa Barbara

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

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Laura Harrison
University of California, Santa Barbara
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Zewdu Segele
IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre [ICPAC]
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Todd Stuart Rosenstock
World Agroforestry Centre
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peter steward
Alliance of Biodiversity International and the International Center for Tropical Agriculture (Biodiversity - CIAT)
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leigh anderson
Marc Lindenberg Professor for Humanitarian Action, International Development and Global Citizenship, University of Washing
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Erin Coughlan-Perez
Tufts University
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daniel maxwell
Friedman School of Nutrition, Tufts University
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Hussen Seid Endris
IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Center
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Eunice Koech
IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Center
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guleid artan
IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Center
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Fetene Teshome
Ethiopian National Meteorology Department
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Stella Aura
Unknown
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Gideon Galu
United States Geological Survey
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Diriba Korecha
Famine Early Warning Systems Network
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weston anderson
Goddard Space Flight Center
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Andrew Hoell
NOAA/ESRL/PSD
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kerstin damerau
Department of Global Development, Cornell University
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Emily L Williams
University of California Santa Barbara
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Aniruddha gosh
Alliance of Biodiversity International and the International Center for Tropical Agriculture (Biodiversity - CIAT)
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Julian Ramirez Villegas
Unknown
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david Peter hughes
USAID Innovation Lab on Current and Emerging Threats to Crops, Pennsylvania State University
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Abstract

This commentary discusses new advances in the predictability of east African rains and highlights the potential for improved early warning systems (EWS), humanitarian relief efforts, and agricultural decision-making. Following an unprecedented sequence of five droughts, in 2022 23 million east Africans faced starvation, requiring >$2 billion in aid. Here, we update climate attribution studies showing that these droughts resulted from an interaction of climate change and La Niña. Then we describe, for the first time, how attribution-based insights can be combined with the latest dynamic models to predict droughts at eight-month lead-times. We then discuss behavioral and social barriers to forecast use, and review literature examining how EWS might (or might not) enhance agro-pastoral advisories and humanitarian interventions. Finally, in reference to the new World Meteorological Organization (WMO) “Early Warning for All” plan, we conclude with a set of recommendations supporting actionable and authoritative climate services. Trust, urgency, and accuracy can help overcome barriers created by limited funding, uncertain tradeoffs, and inertia. Understanding how climate change is producing predictable climate extremes now, investing in African-led EWS, and building better links between EWS and agricultural development efforts can support long-term adaptation, reducing chronic needs for billions of dollars in reactive assistance. The main messages of this commentary will be widely. Climate change is interacting with La Niña to produce extreme, but extremely predictable, Pacific sea surface temperature gradients. These gradients will affect the climate in many countries creating opportunities for prediction. Effective use of such predictions, however, will demand cross-silo collaboration.
01 Feb 2023Submitted to ESS Open Archive
09 Feb 2023Published in ESS Open Archive