Társilo Girona
Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA 91109, USA., Geophysical Institute, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Alaska 99775, USA
Corresponding Author:[email protected]
Author ProfileVincent Realmuto
Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA 91109, USA., Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA 91109, USA.
Author ProfilePaul Lundgren
Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA 91109, USA., Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA 91109, USA.
Author ProfileAbstract
Identifying the observables that warn of volcanic eruptions is a major
challenge in natural hazard management. An important, but
under-investigated, observable is the release of heat through volcano
surfaces, which represents a major energy source at quiescent volcanism.
However, it remains unclear whether surface heat emissions respond to
pre-eruptive processes and vary before eruption. Here we show that the
last magmatic and phreatic eruptions of five different volcanoes were
preceded by subtle but significant long-term (~years),
large-scale (10s of km2), increases of their radiant heat flux (up to
~1 of median radiant temperature). This pre-eruptive
thermal unrest is found through a new statistical analysis of
satellite-based long-wavelength (10.780–11.280 ) infrared data, and is
attributed to the enhancement of underground hydrothermal activity.
Large-scale thermal unrest is detected even before eruptions that were
impossible to anticipate through other geophysical/geochemical methods
(e.g., the 2014 phreatic eruption of Ontake, Japan; the 2015 magmatic
eruption of Calbuco, Chile), thus opening new horizons to better
constrain the thermal budget of volcanoes and improve eruption
forecasts.