How should diverse stakeholder interests shape evaluations of complex
water resources systems robustness when confronting deeply uncertain
changes?
Abstract
Robustness analysis can support long-term planning, design and operation
of large-scale water infrastructure projects confronting deeply
uncertain futures. Diverse actors, contextual specificities, sectoral
interests, and risk attitudes make it difficult to identify an
acceptable and appropriate robustness metric to rank decision
alternatives under deep uncertainty. Here, we contribute an exploratory
framework to demonstrate how methodological choices affect robustness
evaluation. The framework is applied to a multi-actor, multi-sector
Inchampalli-Nagarjuna Sagar (INS) water transfer megaproject in Southern
India. We evaluate a suite of dynamic adaptive water transfer strategies
discovered using evolutionary multi-objective direct policy search
(EMODPS), a status quo strategy of no water transfer, and a strategy
proposed by regional authorities. We evaluate robustness across
wide-ranging scenarios that capture key uncertainties in potential
future changes in reservoir inflows and water demands in the basins.
Results show that the priorities of different actors, sectoral
perspectives, and risk attitude significantly affect robustness rankings
of strategies. We found that compromise strategies obtained from EMODPS
are better able to balance the diverse performance requirements across
various actors and sectors when compared to the no-transfer and proposed
transfer. We reveal a key robustness tradeoff between the donor basin’s
ecological requirements and the recipient basin’s socio-economic
requirements. While robustness analysis is central to water
infrastructure planning, we show why exploratory robustness analyses
that engage with conflicting stakeholder objectives is vital for
long-term sustainability. Furthermore, the selection of compromise
solutions should be guided by an explicit understanding of how assumed
risk attitudes shape stakeholders’ understanding of consequential
vulnerabilities.