Point-source moment tensor inversion via a Bayesian hierarchical
inversion with 2D-structure uncertainty: Implications for the 2009-2017
DPRK nuclear tests
Abstract
Determining the seismic moment tensors (MT) from the observed waveforms,
known as full-waveform seismic MT inversion, remains challenging for
small to moderate-size earthquakes at regional scales. Firstly, there is
an intrinsic difficulty due to a tradeoff between the isotropic (ISO)
and compensated linear vector dipole (CLVD) components of MT that
impedes resolving shallow explosive sources, e.g., underground nuclear
explosions. It is caused by the similarity of long-period waveforms
radiated by ISO and CLVD at regional distances. Secondly, regional
scales usually bear complex geologic structures; thus, inaccurate
knowledge of Earth’s structure should be considered a theoretical error
in the MT inversion. However, this has been a challenging problem. So
far, only the uncertainty of the 1D Earth model (1D structural error),
apart from data errors, has been explored in the source studies. Here,
we utilize a hierarchical Bayesian MT inversion to address the above
problems. Our approach takes advantage of affine-invariant ensemble
samplers to explore the ISO-CLVD tradeoff space thoroughly and
effectively. Furthermore, we invert for station-specific time shifts to
treat the structural errors along specific source-station paths (2D
structural errors). We present synthetic experiments demonstrating the
method’s advantage in resolving the ISO components. The application to
nuclear explosions conducted by the Democratic People’s Republic of
Korea (DPRK) shows highly similar source mechanisms, dominated by a high
ISO, significant CLVD components, and a small DC component. The
recovered station-specific time shifts from the nuclear explosions
present a consistent pattern, which agrees well with the geological
setting surrounding the event location.