SuPreMeChiF - a New Approach to Detect Subtle Changes in Continuous
Monitoring Data, with a case study of COVID-19 impact in Singapore
through seismic and infrasound recordings
Abstract
The lack of precursory signals at some volcanic eruptions could be due
to the analysis performed which failed to capture subtle changes. We
have developed a new technique, “Subtle Precursor Measurement of Change
in Frequency (SuPreMeChiF)”, which calculates the cumulative
distribution difference (Kolmogorov-Smirnov test) between monitoring
features in given reference and sample windows, to detect and quantify
subtle changes in continuous data that may be overlooked by usual
analysis. It is tested on seismic and infrasound recordings to analyse
changes associated with the COVID-19 period, a known global
perturbation. The results show high coherence with mobility, reveal
details of changes that were not indicated in conventional spectral
analysis, and demonstrate the potential to retrieve the source physical
processes. This quantitative approach provides insight for future
application in automated detections during real-time volcano monitoring.