Abstract
This study investigates precipitation variability over the Arabian
Peninsula (AP) during its wet season. The wet season is split into
winter (November – February) and spring (March and April) seasons, and
early (1950–1986) and late (1986–2021) periods to understand
sub-seasonal characteristics of precipitation variability and long-term
changes in global teleconnections. The first three Empirical Orthogonal
Functions explain ~70% of the interannual wet season
precipitation variance, which shows an increase (decrease) in the late
period winter (spring). Linear regression of the sea surface
temperatures and geopotential height onto associated principal
components reveals many oceanic and atmospheric variability patterns,
which exhibit significant differences between winter and spring and
early and late periods. Further, linear regressions of AP precipitation
onto 14 natural modes of climate variability reveal a complex network of
global teleconnections. El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is one of
the key contributors to precipitation variability but considering ENSO
diversity is crucial to fully understand its influence. While the direct
ENSO influence only becomes robust after the 1980s, its indirect effect
persists through projection onto atmospheric modes, such as East
Atlantic West Russia Pattern and East Atlantic Mode, or inter-basin
interaction (e.g., via the Indian Ocean). The Northern Hemisphere
atmospheric modes also mediate influences of other natural modes in
tropical Indian and Atlantic oceans and extra-tropical regions over the
AP. Several precipitation teleconnections exhibit a shift in the 1980s.
Some may be related to the introduction of satellite data, but further
investigations are warranted to understand the causes of these shifts.