Data Imbalance, Uncertainty Quantification, and Generalization via
Transfer Learning in Data-driven Parameterizations: Lessons from the
Emulation of Gravity Wave Momentum Transport in WACCM
Abstract
Neural networks (NNs) are increasingly used for data-driven
subgrid-scale parameterization in weather and climate models. While NNs
are powerful tools for learning complex nonlinear relationships from
data, there are several challenges in using them for parameterizations.
Three of these challenges are 1) data imbalance related to learning rare
(often large-amplitude) samples; 2) uncertainty quantification (UQ) of
the predictions to provide an accuracy indicator; and 3) generalization
to other climates, e.g., those with higher radiative forcing. Here, we
examine the performance of methods for addressing these challenges using
NN-based emulators of the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model
(WACCM) physics-based gravity wave (GW) parameterizations as the test
case. WACCM has complex, state-of-the-art parameterizations for
orography-, convection- and frontal-driven GWs. Convection- and
orography-driven GWs have significant data imbalance due to the absence
of convection or orography in many grid points. We address data
imbalance using resampling and/or weighted loss functions, enabling the
successful emulation of parameterizations for all three sources. We
demonstrate that three UQ methods (Bayesian NNs, variational
auto-encoders, and dropouts) provide ensemble spreads that correspond to
accuracy during testing, offering criteria on when a NN gives inaccurate
predictions. Finally, we show that the accuracy of these NNs decreases
for a warmer climate (4XCO2). However, the generalization accuracy is
significantly improved by applying transfer learning, e.g., re-training
only one layer using ~1% new data from the warmer
climate. The findings of this study offer insights for developing
reliable and generalizable data-driven parameterizations for various
processes, including (but not limited) to GWs.