Aerosols from large volcanic eruptions are purported to cause significant global precipitation changes lasting up to several years. We here show that eruptions with very large stratospheric sulfur injections are, in fact, too weak to substantially alter precipitation at most land locations. Analyzing two climate model ensembles, we demonstrate that internal variability is the main driver of interannual precipitation anomalies even in the aftermath of the largest tropical eruptions of the last millennium. Further, observations show that post-eruption precipitation anomalies in post-eruption years are indistinguishable from anomalies in non-volcanic years. Reports of statistically significant post-eruption precipitation anomalies have relied on metrics that remove internal variability in order to inflate the volcanic signal. Such metrics are not suitable to assess the importance of volcanic eruptions on local-scale precipitation.

Precipitation is expected to increase in a warmer global climate, yet how sensitive precipitation is to warming depends on poorly constrained cloud radiative processes. Clouds respond to surface warming in ways that alter the atmosphere's ability to radiatively cool and hence form precipitation. Here we examine the links between cloud responses to warming, atmospheric radiative fluxes, and hydrological sensitivity in AMIP6 simulations. The clearest impacts come from high clouds, which reduce atmospheric radiative cooling as they rise in altitude in response to surface warming. Using cloud locking, we demonstrate that high cloud radiative changes weaken Earth's hydrological sensitivity to surface warming. The total impact of cloud radiative effects on hydrological sensitivity is halved by interactions between cloud and clear-sky radiative effects, yet is sufficiently large to be a major source of uncertainty in hydrological sensitivity.

Ice nucleation in mixed-phase clouds has recently been identified as a critical factor in projections of future climate. Here we explore how this process influences climate sensitivity using the Community Earth System Model 2 (CESM2). We find that ice nucleation affects simulated cloud feedbacks over most regions and levels of the troposphere, not just extratropical low clouds. Ice nucleation’s impact on climate sensitivity is found to primarily operate through this process’s role setting global-scale cloud phase. Conversely, whether ice nucleation is treated as aerosol-sensitive is of limited importance. In satellite-constrained model experiments, dissimilar ice nucleation realizations all result in a strongly positive total cloud feedback, as in the default CESM2. A microphysics update from CESM1 to CESM2 had substantially weakened ice nucleation, due partly to a model issue. Our findings suggest that this contributed to increased climate sensitivity by reducing global cloud phase bias, resulting in more realistic mixed-phase clouds.

Volcanic aerosols reduce global mean precipitation in the years after major eruptions, yet the mechanisms that produce this response have not been rigorously identified. Volcanic aerosols alter the atmosphere's energy balance, with precipitation changes being one pathway by which the atmosphere acts to return towards equilibrium. By assessing the atmosphere's energy budget in climate model simulations, we here show that global precipitation reduction is largely a consequence of Earth's surface cooling in response to volcanic aerosols reflecting incoming sunlight. In addition, these aerosols also directly add energy to the atmosphere by absorbing outgoing longwave radiation, and this is a major cause of precipitation decline in the first post-eruption year. We also identify mechanisms that oppose the post-eruption precipitation decline, and provide evidence that our results are robust across climate models.