Multi-site and multi-year precipitation isotope δ18O forecasting using
CNN, Bi-LSTM, CNN-Bi-LSTM, and spatiotemporal clustering
Abstract
The combined utilization of spatiotemporal clustering and deep learning
neural network models were designed to evaluate the applicability of the
multi-year and multi-sites precipitation δ18O forecasting method based
on the precipitation isotope data of 10 stations in Germany from 1988 to
2012. In the overall forecasting, the performance of single-site
multi-year forecasting is in the order of the Bi-directional Long
Short-Term Memory (Bi-LSTM), CNN-Bi-LSTM, and the Convolutional Neural
Network (CNN), with CNN-Bi-LSTM being the optimal model for multi-site
multi-year forecasts. The seasonal forecasting does not demonstrate a
significant improvement compared to the overall forecasting. For
forecasting based on spatiotemporal clustering, cluster 1 improved
accuracy, and cluster 2 improved error reduction and variance
consistency. Nevertheless, the accuracy of forecasts depends solely on
the amount of input data when the proportion of forecasting increases to
a certain level. Overall, the seasonal forecasting is more appropriate
for improving forecasting within a specific season, while spatiotemporal
clustering can improve forecasting accuracy to some degree. In addition,
optimal solutions exist for the type and number of model clusters. In
terms of model types, CNN-Bi-LSTM generally has better forecasting
performance than CNN and Bi-LSTM.