Global sensitivity analysis using the ultra-low resolution Energy
Exascale Earth System Model
Abstract
For decades, the Arctic has been warming at least twice as fast as the
rest of the globe. As a first step towards quantifying parametric
uncertainty in Arctic feedbacks, we perform a variance-based global
sensitivity analysis (GSA) using a fully-coupled, ultra-low resolution
(ULR) configuration of version 1 of the Department of Energy’s Energy
Exascale Earth System Model (E3SMv1). The study randomly draws 139
realizations of ten model parameters spanning three E3SMv1 components
(sea ice, atmosphere and ocean), which are used to generate 75 year long
projections of future climate using a fixed pre-industrial forcing. We
quantify the sensitivity of six Arctic-focused quantities of interest
(QOIs) to these parameters using main effect, total effect and Sobol
sensitivity indices computed with a Gaussian process emulator. A
sensitivity index-based ranking of model parameters shows that the
atmospheric parameters in the CLUBB (Cloud Layers Unified by Binormals)
scheme have significant impact on sea ice status and the larger Arctic
climate. We also use the Gaussian process emulator to predict the
response of varying each variable when the impact of other parameters
are averaged out. These results allow one to assess the non-linearity of
a parameter’s impact on a QOI and investigate the presence of local
minima encountered during the spin-up tuning process. Our study confirms
the necessity of performing global analyses involving fully-coupled
climate models, and motivates follow-on investigations in which the ULR
model is compared rigorously to higher resolution configurations to
confirm its viability as a lower-cost surrogate in fully-coupled climate
uncertainty analyses.