Stochastic Simulation of Tropical Cyclones for Risk Assessment at One
Go: A Multivariate Functional PCA Approach
Abstract
A multivariate functional principal component analysis (PCA) approach to
the full-track simulation of tropical cyclones (TCs) is developed for
risk assessment. Elemental variables of TC along the track necessary for
risk assessment, such as center coordinates, maximum wind speed, minimum
central pressure and ordinal dates, can be simulated simultaneously at
one go, using solely the best-track data with no data supplemented from
any other sources. The simulation model is optimally determined by means
of the ladle estimator. A TC occurrence model using the
Conway–Maxwell–Poisson distribution is proposed as well, by which
different dispersion features of annual occurrence can be represented in
a unified manner. With the occurrence model, TCs can be simulated on an
annual basis. The modeling and simulation process is programmed and
fully automated such that little manual intervention is required, which
greatly improves the modeling efficiency and reduces the turnaround
time, especially when newly available TC data are incorporated
periodically into the model. Comprehensive evaluation shows that this
approach is capable of generating high-performance synthetic TCs in
terms of distributional and extreme value features, which can be used in
conjunction with wind field and engineering vulnerability models to
estimate economic and insurance losses for governments and
insurance/reinsurance industry.