Oceanic harbingers of Pacific Decadal Oscillation predictability in
CESM2 detected by neural networks
Abstract
Predicting Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) transitions and
understanding the associated mechanisms has proven a critical but
challenging task in climate science. As a form of decadal variability,
the PDO is associated with both large-scale climate shifts and regional
climate predictability. We show that artificial neural networks (ANNs)
predict PDO persistence and transitions from 12 months onward. Using
layer-wise relevance propagation to investigate the ANN predictions, we
demonstrate that the ANNs utilize oceanic patterns that have been
previously linked to predictable PDO behavior. For PDO transitions, ANNs
recognize a build-up of ocean heat content in the off-equatorial western
Pacific 12-27 months before a transition occurs. The results support the
continued use of ANNs in climate studies where explainability tools can
assist in mechanistic understanding of the climate system.