Predicting slowdowns in decadal climate warming trends with explainable
neural networks
Abstract
The global mean surface temperature (GMST) record exhibits both
interannual to multidecadal variability and a long-term warming trend
due to external climate forcing. To explore the predictability of
temporary slowdowns in decadal warming, we apply an artificial neural
network (ANN) to climate model data from the Community Earth System
Model Version 2 Large Ensemble. Here, an ANN is tasked with whether or
not there will be a slowdown in the rate of the GMST trend by using maps
of ocean heat content at the onset. Through a machine learning
explainability method, we find the ANN is learning off-equatorial
patterns of anomalous ocean heat content that resemble transitions in
the phase of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation in order to make
slowdown predictions. Finally, we test our ANN on observed historical
data, which further reveals how explainable neural networks are useful
tools for understanding decadal variability in both climate models and
observations.