We compute predictions of the deviation of Mercury’s spin axis from an exact Cassini state caused by tidal dissipation, and viscous and electromagnetic (EM) friction at the core-mantle boundary (CMB) and inner core boundary (ICB). Viscous friction at the CMB generates a phase lead, viscous and EM friction at the ICB produce a phase lag; the magnitude of the deviation depends on the inner core size, kinematic viscosity and magnetic field strength, but cannot exceed an upper bound. For a small inner core, viscous friction at the CMB results in a maximum phase lead of 0.027 arcsec. For a large inner core (radius >1000 km), EM friction at the ICB generates the largest phase lag, but it does not exceed 0.1 arcsec. Elastic deformations induced by the misaligned fluid and solid cores play a first order role in the phase lead/lag caused by viscous and EM coupling, and contribute to a perturbation in mantle obliquity on par with that caused by tidal deformations. Tidal dissipation results in a phase lag and its magnitude (in units of arcsec) is given by the empirical relation (80/Q), where Q is the quality factor; Q=80 results in a phase lag of ~1 arcsec. A large inner core with a low viscosity of the order of 10^{17} Pa s or lower can significantly affect Q and thus the resulting phase lag. The limited mantle phase lag suggested by observations (<10 arcsec) implies a lower limit on the bulk mantle viscosity of approximately 10^{17} Pa s.