Predicting Antarctic net snow accumulation at the kilometer scale and
its impact on observed height changes
Abstract
Sub-grid-scale processes occurring at or near the surface of an ice
sheet have a potentially large impact on local and integrated net
accumulation of snow via redistribution and sublimation. Given
observational complexity, they are either ignored or parameterized over
large-length scales. Here, we train random forest models to predict 1-km
variability in net accumulation over the Antarctic Ice Sheet using
atmospheric variables and topographic characteristics as predictors.
Observations of net snow accumulation from both in situ and airborne
radar data provide the input observable targets needed to train the
random forest models. We find that kilometer-scale processes modify
local net accumulation by as much as 172% of the atmospheric model
mean. The correlation in space between the predicted net accumulation
variability and satellite-derived surface-height change indicates that
kilometer-scale processes operate differently through time, driven
largely by the seasonal anomalies in snow accumulation.