Resolving the differences in the simulated and reconstructed temperature
response to volcanism
Abstract
Explosive volcanism imposes impulse-like radiative forcing on the
climate system, providing a natural experiment to study the climate
response to perturbation. Previous studies have identified disagreements
between paleoclimate reconstructions and climate model simulations
(GCMs) with respect to the magnitude and recovery from volcanic cooling,
questioning the fidelity of GCMs, reconstructions, or both. Using the
paleoenvironmental data assimilation framework of the Last Millennium
Reanalysis, this study investigates the causes of the disagreements,
using both real and simulated data. We demonstrate that discrepancies
since 1600 CE can be largely resolved by assimilating tree-ring density
records only, targeting growing-season temperature instead of annual
temperature, and performing the comparison at proxy locales. Simulations
of eruptions earlier in the last millennium may also reflect
uncertainties in forcing and modeled aerosol microphysics.