Abstract
Investigating watershed hydrology from a data-driven causal perspective
is an attractive opportunity to characterize and understand
relationships between water storages and fluxes. Here we assess
integrally how the water balance components interact with themselves,
aiming to find relevant time-lags or dependency patterns. Granger’s
causality test and time-lagged mutual information were used in a
pairwise approach to examine cause-effect relationships between
precipitation, streamflow, groundwater levels under different
land-covers, and evapotranspiration data (daily timescale) from 2009 to
2019 in a Brazilian watershed (52 km²), located in a recharge area of
the Guarani Aquifer System. A verification assessment using synthetic
datasets shows that the methods are effective to identify the underlying
generating mechanisms. Statistically significant causal connections were
confirmed in practically all pairs of observed data. Granger’s causality
indicates that groundwater and streamflow responses are influenced by
precipitation even with a lag of 1-day, while evapotranspiration can
take more than 200 days to influence groundwater responses, depending on
the water table depth and surrounding land-cover. Mutual information
curves show dependency patterns between hydrological processes that are
different from the ones obtained by cross-correlation functions. The
causal analysis provides a complementary view of the hydrological
system’s functioning and may lead us to develop predictive models that
reproduce not only the target variables but also the diverse time-lagged
dependencies observed in environmental data.