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A multi-hazards earth science perspective on the COVID-19 pandemic: the potential for concurrent and cascading crises
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  • · Fabian Prideaux,
  • MARK QUIGLEY,
  • Januka Attanayake,
  • · Andrew King
· Fabian Prideaux
Humanitarian Benchmark Consulting, Humanitarian Benchmark Consulting, Humanitarian Benchmark Consulting
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MARK QUIGLEY
University of Melbourne, University of Melbourne, University of Melbourne

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

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Januka Attanayake
University of Melbourne, University of Melbourne, University of Melbourne
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· Andrew King
University of Melbourne, University of Melbourne, University of Melbourne
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Abstract

Meteorological and geophysical hazards will concur and interact with coronavirus disease (COVID-19) impacts in many regions on Earth. These interactions will challenge the resilience of societies and systems. A comparison of plausible COVID-19 epidemic trajectories with multi-hazard time-series curves enables delineation of multi-hazard scenarios for selected countries (United States, China, Australia, Bangladesh) and regions (Texas). In multi-hazard crises, governments and other responding agents may be required to make complex, highly compromised, hierarchical decisions aimed to balance COVID-19 risks and protocols with disaster response and recovery operations. Contemporary socioeconomic changes (e.g. reducing risk mitigation measures, lowering restrictions on human activity to stimulate economic recovery) may alter COVID-19 epidemiological dynamics and increase future risks relating to natural hazards and COVID-19 interactions. For example, the aggregation of evacuees into communal environments and increased demand on medical, economic, and infrastructural capacity associated with natural hazard impacts may increase COVID-19 exposure risks and vulnerabilities. COVID-19 epidemiologic conditions at the time of a natural hazard event might also influence the characteristics of emergency and humanitarian responses (e.g. evacuation and sheltering procedures, resource availability, implementation modalities, and assistance types). A simple epidemic phenomenological model with a concurrent disaster event predicts a greater infection rate following events during the pre-infection rate peak period compared with post-peak events, highlighting the need for enacting COVID-19 counter measures in advance of seasonal increases in natural hazards. Inclusion of natural hazard inputs into COVID-19 epidemiological models could enhance the evidence base for informing contemporary policy across diverse multi-hazard scenarios, defining and addressing gaps in disaster preparedness strategies and resourcing, and implementing a future-planning systems approach into contemporary COVID-19 mitigation strategies. Our recommendations may assist governments and their advisors to develop risk reduction strategies for natural and cascading hazards during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Jun 2020Published in Environment Systems and Decisions volume 40 issue 2 on pages 199-215. 10.1007/s10669-020-09772-1