Investigating zonal asymmetries in stratospheric ozone trends from
satellite limb observations and a chemical transport model
Abstract
This study investigates the origin of the zonal asymmetry in
stratospheric ozone trends at northern high latitudes, identified in
satellite limb observations over the past two decades. We use a merged
dataset consisting of ozone profiles retrieved at the University of
Bremen from SCIAMACHY and OMPS-LP measurements to derive ozone trends.
We also use TOMCAT chemical transport model (CTM) simulations, forced by
ERA5 reanalyses, to investigate the factors which determine the
asymmetry observed in the long-term changes. By studying seasonally and
longitudinally resolved observation-based ozone trends, we find,
especially during spring, a well-pronounced asymmetry at polar
latitudes, with values up to +6 % per decade over Greenland and -5 %
per decade over western Russia. The control CTM simulation agrees well
with these observed trends, whereas sensitivity simulations indicate
that chemical mechanisms, involved in the production and removal of
ozone, or their changes, are unlikely to explain the observed behaviour.
The decomposition of TOMCAT ozone time series and of ERA5 geopotential
height into the first two wavenumber components shows a clear
correlation between the two variables in the middle stratosphere and
demonstrates a weakening and a shift in the wavenumber-1 planetary wave
activity over the past two decades. Finally, the analysis of the polar
vortex position and strength points to a decadal oscillation with a
reversal pattern at the beginning of the century, also found in the
ozone trend asymmetry. This further stresses the link between changes in
the polar vortex position and the identified ozone trend pattern.