Eldon Taskinen

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In prior decades the concept of using mathematical methods to predict earthquakes was considered infeasible. Recent advances in machine learning and predictive modeling offer promising avenues to potentially realize earthquake prediction. In order to test the viability of machine learning methods, experiments were made with earthquake datasets from Kansas and Puerto Rico. The two datasets were chosen for the distinct differences in their tectonic settings. Kansas has few major faults, with a largely inactive subsurface, this produced a smaller dataset with a few large clusters. Puerto Rico is complexly faulted, with an extremely active tectonic setting, this produced a larger dataset with a large number of small clusters. In order to test the effectiveness of these two datasets for machine learning and prediction they were run through three different machine learning algorithms including an LSTM model, Bi-LSTM model, Bi-LSTM model with attention. Not only were the three different machine learning methods compared against each other for accuracy but also the datasets as well. Conclusive findings show that the two different data sets favor different processing methods. The Kansas data performs the best with the Bi-LSTM with attention model, while the Puerto Rico data performs the best with the LSTM model. This is likely due to the tectonic settings of the two regions, since the Kansas dataset has less overall data, and earthquakes are concentrated in a few large clusters, while the Puerto Rico data set has a more even distribution.
The Dobi graben is a NW-trending, Quaternary continental rift found within the East-Central Block (ECB) of the Afar Depression (AD) in northeastern Ethiopia. Extension occurs on steeply dipping faults, where the ratio of maximum displacement to traced fault length extends to four orders of magnitude. We conducted fault population analysis in the Dobi graben using a 30 m resolution Shuttle Rader Topography Mission (SRTM) Digital Elevation Model (DEM). We traced a total of 953 faults. We used the fault displacement length profiles’ tapering directions and the different types of fault propagations’ termination styles to characterize the fault kinematics pattern. Our population analysis results show that ~45% of the normal faults in the Dobi graben are tapering towards the southeast in a manner similar to the Red Sea Rift (RSR) regional strain gradient. On the other hand, our analysis showed that ~40% of the faults in the Dobi graben are tapering towards the northwest direction in a manner similar to the Gulf of Aden Rift (GAR) regional strain gradient. We found the statistical regression correlation coefficients (R-square value) for both the southeast and the northwest tapering faults to be ~0.7. Therefore, we suggest that ~85% of the lateral propagation of the 953 faults in the Dobi graben is highly influenced by the regional strain transfer of the RSR and GAR. Additionally, based on the fault propagation termination styles, our faults population analysis shows that faults which exhibit the half-restricted termination style account for 85% of the 953 faults. The maximum displacement over the maximum length (Dmax/Lmax) ratio of these faults is 0.03, which is in accord with the constant displacement length fault growth model.