Development of CMIP6-based climate scenarios for Japan using statistical
method and their applicability to impact studies
Abstract
Climate scenario dataset are indispensable for assessing future climate
impacts. In this study, we developed statistically downscaled climate
scenarios in Japan using modified bias correction method based on five
general circulation models selected from the Coupled Model
Intercomparison Project (CMIP) Phase 6 to facilitate impact assessments
and adaptation strategies. Modification of time window of the original
correction method results in successful agreement with the observed
seasonal change of variables in each grid. The original CMIP6 models
have a relatively small bias compared to CMIP5 models. The CMIP6-based
bias-corrected scenarios are available for use with the emissions
scenario of representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 in addition
to RCP2.6 and RCP8.5. Several temperature-related indices derived from
the CMIP6-based climate scenarios agreed well with observations. The
number of extremely hot days and nights increased nonlinearly in the
future with additional global warming. An increase in the global warming
level from 1°C to 2°C above the early 1900s would increase the
probability of the number of extremely hot days per year exceeding the
2018 case by 4.1 times. The development of bias-corrected climate
scenarios facilitates the study of various climate impacts on a CMIP6
basis.