Abstract
Although zooplankton play a substantial role in the biological carbon
pump and serve as a crucial link between primary producers and higher
trophic level consumers, the skillful representation of zooplankton is
not often a focus of ocean biogeochemical models. Systematic evaluations
of zooplankton in models could improve their representation, but so far,
ocean biogeochemical skill assessment of Earth system model (ESM)
ensembles have not included zooplankton. Here we use a recently
developed global, observationally-based map of mesozooplankton biomass
to assess the skill of mesozooplankton in six CMIP6 ESMs. We also employ
a biome-based assessment of the ability of these models to reproduce the
observed relationship between mesozooplankton biomass and surface
chlorophyll. The combined analysis found that most models were able to
reasonably simulate the large regional variations in mesozooplankton
biomass at the global scale. Additionally, three of the ESMs simulated a
mesozooplankton-chlorophyll relationship within the observational
bounds, which we used as an emergent constraint on future
mesozooplankton projections. We highlight where differences in model
structure and parameters may give rise to varied mesozooplankton
distributions under historic and future conditions, and the resultant
wide ensemble spread in projected changes in mesozooplankton biomass.
Despite differences, the strength of the mesozooplankton-chlorophyll
relationships across all models was related to the projected changes in
mesozooplankton biomass globally and in regional biomes. These results
suggest that improved observations of mesozooplankton and their
relationship to chlorophyll will better constrain projections of climate
change impacts on these important animals.