Modeling monthly and seasonal Michigan snowfall based on machine
learning: A multiscale approach
Abstract
Snowfall has important significance in water resources management and
disaster prevention worldwide. Accurate prediction of both mean and
extreme snowfall is challenging because of multiple controlling
mechanisms at different spatial and temporal scales. By using a 65 years
long in-situ snowfall observation, we evaluated seven different machine
learning algorithms for predicting monthly snowfall in the Lower
Peninsula of Michigan (LPM). The Bayesian Additive Regression Trees
(BART) demonstrates the best fitting (R2 = 0.88) and out-of-sample
prediction skills (R2 = 0.58) for the monthly mean snowfall followed by
the Random Forest model. The BART also demonstrate strong predictive
skills for seasonal and the extreme monthly snowfall. Both machine
learning models also demonstrate signals of key physical processes
controlling the snowfall including topography, local/regional
environmental factors, and teleconnections. Particularly, models with
the non-parametric framework can incorporate signals from multiple
scales and nonlinear responses from the snowfall to environmental
factors and that substantially improved the model prediction skills. The
multiscale machine learning approach provides a reliable and
computationally efficient alternative approach to predict/forecast
weather and climate and has potential to be applied to other extreme
weather prediction scenarios.