Improvement and Uncertainties of Global Simulation of Sulfate
Concentration and Radiative Forcing in CESM2
Abstract
Sulfate is a major atmospheric pollutant and radiative forcing (RF)
factor that influences air quality, cloud microphysics and climate.
Therefore, a better evaluation of sulfate concentrations and RF patterns
is essential for policy-making and the management of air pollution and
climate change. This study comprehensively estimates the global
distribution of sulfate concentrations and RFs and analyzes the sources
of uncertainty in the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2) and
the Parallel Offline Radiative Transfer (PORT) model. Compared with the
observations, the incorporation of detailed in-cloud aqueous-phase
chemistry and the enhanced wet deposition flux of sulfate significantly
improved the simulations of sulfur species both near the ground and at
high altitudes, which is beneficial for a more accurate estimation of
the global sulfate RF. The improved simulated RF of sulfate from 1850 to
2015 is -0.382 Wˑm-2. This study finds that wet
deposition is the key process governing both the horizontal and vertical
distributions of sulfate concentrations. The overestimation of surface
sulfate and the underestimation of high-altitude sulfate made by the
model are essential uncertainty factors of the sulfate RF estimation.
This study emphasizes the importance of improving the simulation of
global sulfate distribution as well as its RF, which may strongly
pressure the near-future warming potential when witnessing a rapid
transition to a carbon neutral world that is phasing out fossil fuel. A
more accurate assessment of sulfate levels and radiation effects will
play a remarkable guiding role in the formulation of global emission
reduction-related policies in the future.