How Robust Are Our Assumptions in Using Crystal-Hosted Melt Embayments
to Estimate Magma Ascent Rate?
Abstract
The timescale over which magma rises to the surface during a volcanic
eruption is a critical parameter that controls eruption style but is
challenging to determine. Melt embayments, which are pockets of magma
trapped within crystals but are still open to the host magma, tend to
develop volatile (e.g., H2O, CO2) concentration gradients during ascent
through the process of diffusion. These gradients are increasingly used
as output constraints for diffusion models to calculate total ascent
time. However, there are two main assumptions associated with the method
that have yet to be properly evaluated. First, the diffusion models tend
to be carried out in 1D, which may be less accurate than 3D models if
the embayment narrows near the opening. This geometry has more
complicated volatile flux pathways that 1D models cannot account for.
Second, the models typically assume that volatile contents follow
equilibrium saturation trends defined by depth below the surface, which
may not be accurate for high silica magmas. For these compositions, a
significant supersaturation of volatiles may be needed for volatile
exsolution to start, depending on the availability of suitable crystal
phases for bubble nucleation. This nucleation lag delays the start of
diffusion as well and could influence modeled timescales. We developed
3D diffusion models to evaluate the degree of inaccuracy in calculated
timescales introduced by these assumptions for high silica magmas. We
built synthetic embayments with variable 3D geometries and imposed both
equilibrium and disequilibrium ascent conditions in our models. Our
results indicate that the inaccuracy introduced by embayment geometry in
1D diffusion models increases as the diameter of the embayment opening
decreases. This degree of inaccuracy is also tied to diffusion duration
– as it increases, so does the relative error in timescales retrieved
by 1D models fitting 3D-generated profiles. Once the diffusion front
extends beyond the narrow, “necked” region of the embayment, relative
error increases with increasing diffusion time. However, volatile
disequilibrium behavior does not appear to significantly impact modeled
timescales. These results indicate that embayment geometry is a critical
variable that must be accounted for whereas delayed nucleation is of
secondary influence.