Abstract
Automatic identification of debris flow signals in continuous seismic
records remains a challenge. To tackle this problem we use a machine
learning approach, which can be applied to continuous real-time data
streams. We show that a machine learning model based on the random
forest algorithm recognizes different stages of debris flow formation
and propagation at the Illgraben torrent, Switzerland, with an accuracy
exceeding 90%. In contrast to typical debris flow detection requiring
instrumentation installed directly in the torrent, our approach provides
a significant gain in warning times of tens of minutes to hours. For
real-time data streams from 2020, our detector raises alarms for all 8
independently confirmed Illgraben events and gives no false alarms. We
suggest that our seismic machine-learning detector is a critical step
towards the next generation of debris-flow warning, which increases
warning times using both simpler and cheaper instrumentation compared to
existing operational systems.