Day-to-day Variability of Field-Aligned Irregularities Occurrence in
Nighttime F-region Ionosphere over the Equatorial Atmosphere Radar: A
Combinatorics Analysis
Abstract
This paper presents a statistical analysis to investigate the day-to-day
variability of field-aligned irregularities (FAI) occurrence in
nighttime F-region ionosphere over the Equatorial Atmosphere Radar
(EAR), West Sumatra, Indonesia. FAI echoes were identified based on
signal intensity of backscatter radar observations. We analyzed
nighttime F-region FAI during 3 years starting in January 2011 to
December 2013. For the first time, a combinatorics analysis was applied
to examine the statistical likelihood of various day-to-day FAI
occurrence patterns. The empirical day-to-day combinatorics analysis was
performed based on binary classification of EAR observation data into
either FAI occurrence (+) or absence (-) for each calendar date.
Permutations of various day-to-day occurrence patterns, from 1-day to
6-day patterns, were sorted into histograms. The combinatorics analysis
was performed in 4 separate time intervals to account for seasonal
variation: two equinoxes (March and September) and two solstices (June
and December). EAR data show that FAI occurrence probability is maximum
for the two equinoxes, and that it is minimum for the two solstices. Our
analysis shows that certain day-to-day patterns are more likely to occur
than others, and such “combinatorics fingerprints” depend on season.
During the solstices, persistent absence of FAI over several consecutive
days far outweighed persistent FAI occurrence over an equivalent
grouping of days with the same length. Meanwhile, during the equinoxes,
we found a generally more equitable distribution between persistent
day-to-day FAI occurrence and persistent day-to-day FAI absence. These
findings may open new ways to help forecast FAI occurrence on a regional
basis.