Enabling Smart Dynamical Downscaling of Extreme Precipitation Events
with Machine Learning
Xiaoming Shi
Division of Environment & Sustainability, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, Division of Environment & Sustainability, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, Division of Environment & Sustainability, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology
Corresponding Author:[email protected]
Author ProfileAbstract
The projection of extreme convective precipitation by global climate
models (GCM) exhibits significant uncertainty due to coarse resolutions.
Direct dynamical downscaling (DDD) of regional climate at
kilometer-scale resolutions provides valuable insight into extreme
precipitation changes, but its computational expense is formidable. Here
we document the effectiveness of machine learning to enable smart
dynamical downscaling (SDD), which selects a small subset of GCM data to
conduct downscaling. Trained with data for three subtropical/tropical
regions, convolutional neural networks (CNNs) retained 92% to 98% of
extreme precipitation events (rain intensity higher than the 99th
percentile) while filtering out 88% to 95% of circulation data. When
applied to reanalysis data sets differing from training data, the CNNs’
skill in retaining extremes decreases modestly in subtropical regions
but sharply in the deep tropics. Nonetheless, one of the CNNs can still
retain 62% of all extreme events in the deep tropical region in the
worst case.