Major modes of climate variability dominate nonlinear Antarctic
ice-sheet elevation changes 2002-2020
Abstract
We explore the links between elevation variability of the Antarctic Ice
Sheet (AIS) and large-scale climate modes. Using multiple linear
regression, we quantify the cumulative effects of El Nino Southern
Oscillation (ENSO) and the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) on gridded AIS
elevations. Cumulative ENSO and SAM explain a median of 29% of the
partial variance and up to 85% in some coastal areas. After spatial
smoothing, these signals have high spatial correlation with those from
GRACE gravimetry (r~=0.65 each). Much of the signal is
removed by a model of firn densification but inter-model differences
exist especially for ENSO. At the lower parts of the Thwaites and Pine
Island glaciers, near their grounding line, we find the Amundsen Sea Low
(ASL) explains ~90% of the observed elevation
variability. There, firn effects explain only a small fraction of the
variability, suggesting significant height changes have a climatological
ice-dynamic response.