GRACEfully closing the water balance: a data-driven probabilistic
approach applied to river basins in Iran
Abstract
To fully benefit from remotely sensed observations of the terrestrial
water cycle, bias and random errors in these datasets need to be
quantified. This paper presents a Bayesian hierarchical model that fuses
monthly water balance data and estimates the corresponding data errors
and error-corrected water balance components (precipitation,
evaporation, river discharge, and water storage). The model combines
monthly basin-scale water balance constraints with probabilistic data
error models for each water balance variable. Each data error model
includes parameters that are in turn treated as unknown random variables
to reflect uncertainty in the errors. Errors in precipitation and
evaporation data are parameterized as a function of multiple data
sources, while errors in GRACE storage observations are described by a
noisy sine wave model with parameters controlling phase, amplitude and
randomness of the sine wave. Error parameters and water balance
variables are estimated using a combination of Markov Chain Monte Carlo
sampling and iterative smoothing. Application to semi-arid river basins
in Iran yields (i) significant reductions in evaporation uncertainty
during water-stressed summers, (ii) basin-specific timing and amplitude
corrections of the GRACE water storage dynamics, and (iii) posterior
water balance estimates with average standard errors of 4-12 mm/month
for water storage, 3.5-7 mm/month for precipitation, 2-6 mm/month for
evaporation, and 0-2 mm/month for river discharge. The approach is
readily extended to other datasets and other (gauged) basins around the
world, possibly using customized data error models. The resulting
error-filtered and bias-corrected water balance estimates can be used to
evaluate hydrological models.